The main purpose of this study is to assess the economic effects of different land use configurations being considered within the IAP and DFA process on key forestry regions, downstream industry and the State economy.
When there is a change in forestry policy, it is not the forestry industry alone that is affected by industry restructuring. There will be flow-on effects to other sectors of the economy. This is because the forestry industries buy inputs from other industries and because the employees in forestry industries, in turn, spend some of their earnings on locally supplied goods and services. A summary measure of these interdependencies are the multipliers that may be derived from input-output models or other macro models.
Regional input output tables were used to analyse the impact on:
This part of the analysis is aimed at identifying where the impacts of the changes may be greatest and require assistance.
The preliminary indicative analysis has been successful in identifying local government areas where, relatively, the largest adjustments may occur. The local government areas identified are those where the forestry-based employment is the largest proportion of overall employment and/ or the absolute numbers are largest.
These local government areas are Kyogle, Lismore, Richmond River, Casino, Bellingen, Coffs Harbour, Copmanhurst, Grafton, Nambucca, Hastings, Kempsey, Gloucester, Great Lakes, Bega Valley, Eurobadalla, Bombala, Tenterfield and Walcha.
However, ultimately the effects of adjustment will depend on local economic factors such as the size of the local economy, recent growth performance, the current level of unemployment, and the opportunities for new enterprise development.