The main purpose of the IAP preliminary social impact study is to develop and test a model and methodology for assessing social impacts arising from reductions in logging quotas, including:
Given the investigative nature of the survey work and data gathering, the study was also intended to identify probable impacts in communities where the forestry industry is located.
In the case of this study, the social impact assessment model was tested in the five New South Wales townships of Bulahdelah, Wauchope, Walcha, Kempsey and Narooma.
This preliminary study, which is essentially a pilot for more comprehensive studies to come, has not been able to take a long and comprehensive approach. The methodology for the preliminary social impacts study was developed within the following parameters. The result has been a "snapshot" study within an interactive approach using both quantitative and qualitative indicators.
The key determinants of the parameters of this preliminary study were:
The potential indicators chosen for this study were grouped into five clusters which are: social profile, social infrastructure, social cohesion, social fragmentation and social resilience (see Table 4.1) While much of the quantitative data has been obtained from standard public sources, it will be noted that some potentially key quantitative indicators of social fragmentation, cohesion and resilience were collected by the visiting consultant team using observations, interviews and questionnaires in the towns themselves.
The methods used in the assessment were: telephone research and interviews, inventory and photographic record and workshops.
While there are variations between towns, what is more striking are the similarities. The social changes anticipated relate partly to expected changes in social and economic infrastructure, for example potential declines in levels of public services, increased dependence on social security etc.
In each of the five towns, to a greater or lesser extent, the workforce is ageing and although young people are increasingly staying on at school, they are also increasingly leaving the town thereafter for further education and work. This is contributing to the separation of family units, and accelerating the ageing of the population in those towns. It is also tending to leave the initiative for community events and undertakings in the hands of older rather than younger community members. These trends are sowing seeds of problems for the future.
With the exception of Walcha and Wauchope, unemployment in each town is higher than the NSW average. Among the ranks of the unemployed are some long term unemployed people. Some of these are former timber workers displaced by the downturn in the timber industry in 1981/82. Of these people, townsfolk are apt to say that they have given up, that they were the least skilled among the workforce initially rendered unemployed and that they are regarded as having left the workforce forever. A critical factor in this assessment by local people is the place of the timber industry as one of the employers of people who have few alternative options. The relevance of this is that the timber industry has continued to provide such employment. There are still people with lower education and skills in this sector who would experience lengthy unemployment.
It is recognised that mitigation strategies, such as structural adjustment, retraining opportunities, new industry initiatives and value adding are important.
Aboriginal unemployment rates, with the exception of Bulahdelah, are higher than the overall unemployment rate. Changes to employment within the timber industry may exacerbate the situation.
Unemployment is a known contributor to family breakdown. In towns studied there are indicators of increased levels of marital stress in the rising separation rates. These rose more rapidly between the 1986 and 1991 censuses in these five towns than in NSW as a whole.
With the exception of Bulahdelah, single parenthood is increasing more rapidly in the study towns than in NSW as a whole. Single parenthood has a tendency to be associated with poverty.
All five towns are losing managers and professional people from their workforces. This trend is only partly attributed to the economic structure. It has also been hastened by State and federal government moves to regionalise and rationalise public services and their administration. However, from the point of view of a small town, these moves rather than promoting efficiency result in cumulative disbenefit. With the middle ranking public servants go professional expertise, resources, access to information and understanding about policy changes, management experience and skills in bringing about new initiatives. The trend perpetuates itself as regional administrations cluster in designated regional centres to which other professionals are attracted.
From the point of view of small towns which are not regional centres, these losses run down social infrastructure and also change the quality of social life in the town and reduce the town’s capacity for community development and change management.
This trend is increased where the seat of local government is located elsewhere. In each town studied, except Walcha, there was a strong resentment of rate contributions from that town funding initiatives in the seat of local government, initiatives which lead to further growth in that centre and further decline in the study town. Some community members told the consultant team that this felt like contributing to their own demise.
The economic structure of a town can impact on the housing market as well as the market for retail, commercial and industrial properties. The social impact of a stagnant property market is that people feel helpless and frustrated and unable to move. Alternatively, a move to a larger town may mean a move into rental accommodation because the family home cannot be sold.
It is recognised that initiatives to assist moving are important.
Long term uncertainty is erosive. Communities only thrive where there are individuals with resources who make commitments of time and energy and, frequently, money and who take risks. A community that is not investing in itself is unlikely to thrive.
Indications are that declining trade and loss of income are threatening some business people as well as independent timber operators with bankruptcy. In some towns, timber operators have recently invested in new machinery and committed themselves to large repayments on the understanding that their part of the timber industry was not under threat. Retailers and other sectors may also be threatened. Shops are vacant in four of the five towns (exception is Kempsey) and businesses are moving to larger centres. Businesses and families remaining in the towns feel that they face continuing uncertainty. In social impact terms, these trends spell concern for both individual and family stress as well as community self esteem, levels of energy and initiative and willingness to make commitments and take risks.
People’s perceptions about impending change and their response to these perceptions are very important. They affect, for example, levels of confidence, mobility, willingness to invest and self esteem, and these in turn have far reaching social impacts.
In each town there was doubt and uncertainty about exactly how changes would impact on timber resources for that town and its immediate area. This uncertainty was increased by the fact that:
While changes in employment in these towns will be gradual and/or affect a relatively small proportion of the workforce, uncertainty and lack of information have outcomes of their own including helplessness and fear, lowered confidence and hope.
Common to the workshops in each town was the difficulty workshop participants experienced in identifying any positive impacts arising from changes in the timber industry. The exceptions were where there were members of conservation groups in the workshops. The point that needs to be noted is not whether or not there are positive impacts, but rather the local community’s difficulty in perceiving these.
Most participants had a good understanding of the reasons for changes, namely: the arguments for sustainability, the value of forests and the potential for ecotourism. However, there was a general belief that central governments would not allocate the funds to bring about these benefits.
Workshop participants reported a loss of faith that the state or nation will do more than engage in cuts. In social impact terms, this amounts to serious disillusionment. The word “anger” was frequently used.
The critical difficulty facing the five towns studied is that a high proportion of key stakeholders feel helpless and defeated. They feel that they lack enough information to understand all of the complex process which might affect them and are excluded from the decision making process. They are concerned that uncertainty and general perceptions of economic decline are eroding their community. By and large they state that they have little faith in the government and expect to be left to their own devices when this latest round of forestry changes are introduced. They do not have confidence in their own resources or abilities to face this challenge and deal with it.
It is recognised that the structural adjustment package and plantation initiatives need to be clearly promoted at the community level.
They anticipate that the community will either be defeated by these changes or that the economic and social decline which they are already experiencing will simply continue. There were few exceptions to these views.
These perceptions were further evidenced by the general difficulty experienced by workshop participants in defining a vision for their town or even a set of opportunities. While some could see windows of opportunity in various forms of tourism or potential opportunities in switching to value adding in the timber industry, these views are not widely held by these communities.
A key concern in social impact assessment is the equity of the likely and actual impacts. In regard to the social impacts likely to be experienced from further changes in the timber industry, equity issues are clear.
The benefits of sustainability, conservation and preservation of forests are nation and world wide but they are perceived to accrue mainly outside the study towns. The disbenefits are seen to accrue mainly within local timber communities.
The beneficiaries are the community at large and future populations for whom longer term issues of ecological sustainability are vital to their health and prosperity. In the short term effects will be borne by small communities for whom the industry has day to day importance.
It is not clear what the employment levels will be in each of the towns studied nor the timeframe over which changes will occur. What is clear, however, is that each town is experiencing a narrowing of its economic base and members of these communities feel helpless and unable to deal with this effectively.
The significant social impacts that this study identified affects the resilience and robustness of a community as well as having consequences for family structures, willingness to invest, mobility and so on.
What is important about this finding is its implications for mitigative actions.
The study suggests that involving communities which have some dependence on forestry in the decisions affecting their future could go some way to mitigating their sense of helplessness.
It also indicates that communities (ie not just individuals) will require help and support to revitalise their leadership and their networks and gear up their energies towards a more positive future.
As well, it is important that the Government initiatives for retraining, relocation, structural adjustment, resource security, value adding and plantations, be clearly explained and promoted within communities.
Further studies and development of mitigative measures will be essential in the Comprehensive Regional Assessment process.
